Comparison of Past Economic Crises and Current Market Situation
| Category | Dot-com Bubble (2000) | Financial Crisis (2008) | COVID-19 Shock (2020) | Current Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crisis Type | Tech stock bubble collapse | Financial system collapse | Pandemic external shock | High interest rates, debt, geopolitical risk |
| Pre-signal | Tech stock PER overheating | Subprime mortgage crisis | Almost none | Prolonged high interest rates |
| Base Rate | Before rate cut started | Large room for rate cuts | Zero interest rates | Maintaining high interest rates |
| Rate Direction | Sharp cut | Sharp cut | Ultra-fast cut | Freeze ↔ Delayed cut |
| Yield Curve Inversion | X | O | X | O (Long-term persistence) |
| VIX (Fear Index) | Medium | Very high | Historical high | Medium to high |
| Stock Market Drop Magnitude | Nasdaq -78% | S&P500 -57% | -34% | Still undetermined |
| Rebound Speed | Very slow | Slow | Very fast | Moderate |
| Real Economy Impact | Medium | Very large | Very large | Gradual slowdown |
| Unemployment Rate | Moderate rise | Sharp rise | Sharp rise | Maintaining low levels |
| Liquidity Policy | Limited | Large-scale QE | Unlimited QE | Liquidity withdrawal |
| Government Response | Passive | Active | Super-large fiscal spending | Limited fiscal capacity |
| Asset Bubble | Tech stocks | Real estate | Growth stocks | AI, Big Tech |
| Pre-collapse of Risk Assets | Tech stocks | Financial stocks | None | Small/mid-cap, Bitcoin |
| Dollar Strength | Normal | Strong | Very strong | Continued strong dollar |
| Recession Timing | After collapse | Immediately after collapse | Immediately | Possibility of delay |
| AI Judgment | ⚠️ Overheating | 🚨 Collapse | 🚨 External shock | ⚠️ High risk |